State of The Rcok

State of The Rcok
NFL News and Commentary

Saturday, January 18, 2014

Path to the SuperBowl NFC

SeaHawks @ Home -3 vs 49ers

Chance of Rain 9% / Fog
Temp: 43
Wind 2 Mph
Advantage: Equal
Both teams accustomed to these conditions.

Home Field:
SF is Great on the Road 6-2. 
SEA Crowd Noise could pose a Significant problem for Kaepernick and the Off Line.
Especially if Ticket Gate has even a small impact on attendance. 

SEA Injuries:
Percy Harvin deserves tremendous praise for his performance last week. He is an Impact player. It was cruel watching him come back - only to be knocked out of the game twice with injuries. However, Seattle went 12-2 without him and should spread the ball around better in his absence. Look for Kearse to play a major role in this weeks game.
Advantage / Disadvantage
Non Factor

SF Injuries:
The Back up for Carlos Rodgers has better Stats than he does. 
Advantage / Disadvantage  
Non Factor 


Off Line:
SEA 19th Off Line vs SF 5th Def Line
SF 3rd Off Line vs SEA 24th Def Line

SEA 16th Pass Off vs SF 6th Pass Def
SF 20th Pass Off vs SEA #1 Pass Def - (Featuring Richard Sherman)

Pass Defense: 
SEA had 0 Interceptions in their Last Game. (Richard Sherman Still a Factor)
SF had 2. 

Wilson Sacked 3 Times Last Game.
Seattle Defense - 1 Sack Last Game.
Kaepernick Sacked Twice Last Game
SF Defense 5 Sacks (Brooks 2.5 - force to be reckoned with.)

SEA 19th Rush Off vs SF #1 Rush Def. Lynch 140 yds, 2 TDs, Long 31
SF #2 Rush Off vs SEA 6th Rush Def. Gore 84 yds, 0 TDs 39 Long. 
SeaHawks (Lynch the Hotter RB Right Now)

T/O Ratio:
SEA +18
SF +10

Projected Red Zone
SEA 38%
SF 41%
Equally Bad

Summary- One Word - VERTICAL
As you can See above - SF Matches up nicely against Seattle. The Main advantage for the SeaHawks is Home Field and a Better Running Back. The Crowd Noise will challenge Kaepernick - who is already prone to mistakes and has a tendency to loft the ball. I expect Richard Sherman to play a much bigger part in this weeks game. Last week Kaepernick reenacted Joe Montana's Rolling backward pass to Clarke - 3 plays in a row. None of his attempts had the same result.

If the SF Pass Rush gets to Wilson, it will be a Long Day for him. The SF Pass Defense will make him pay for any mistakes. Wilson threw for just 103 yds last week. When he scrambles in the pocket the Hawks Lose.  

As you can see - this game could easily go either way. Both Offensive coordinators have lost games for their teams.

Here is the Key to this Game! 
Whichever QB stays Vertical and releases quickly will win. If they Run, they will need to commit quickly and head up field. Scrambling in the backfield or rolling deep to throw is suicide. Neither if these defenses will give either QB time for plays to develop down-field. Each QB will need to throw to position - releasing quickly.  The winning Offensive Coordinator will need a mix of Run, Slants, Screens and vertical boots. 

SF has a good Rush Def. Seattle will need to give Lynch enough Reps to get in the groove. The team that abandons run first - Loses. 

Wilson has done a slightly better job of this recently. Kaepennick Struggled horribly vs the 26th Green Bay Defense. I believe the crowd noise and Richard Sherman will get to him.

Seahawks by 6?

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