State of The Rcok

State of The Rcok
NFL News and Commentary

Saturday, January 18, 2014

Path to the Superbowl AFC

Tomorrow we will have the pleasure of watching two of the best Match ups of the year. There is no great disparity between any of these teams. Each game could go either way. You have all the stats. Lets take a closer look at these Match Ups. 

Broncos @ Home -5 vs Patriots

Chance of Rain 0% 
Temp: 59
Wind 7 Mph
Advantage: Manning, 
Brady great in cold weather. Manning at Home and no Cold weather to slow him down. 

NE Injuries:
Players that practice - even limited - usually play.  Both Wide Receivers Thompkins and Dobson did practice on a Limited basis this week. These two are the main deep threats for the Patriots. If they both are able to perform effectively - This is a huge advantage for the Patriots. 
I say this because Belichck will focus on establishing the Run game. This will set up easy deep strikes for Brady.

Advantage / Disadvantage
Unknown. If Thompkins and Dobson perform - Major advantage. If not - Minor Disadvantage as Pats will focus on Run and short pass game effectively with Amendola and Eddlemen.  
Side note: The Loss of both Gronkowski and Hernandez are the only reason any of this is even an issue. In retrospect, imagine if they were both starting tomorrow. The line would be a Whole lot Different. We'll see if Belechick, famous for trading out talent - can get to the Superbowl without them.

DEN Injuries:
Non Factor 


Off Line:
DEN 4th Off Line vs NE 21st  Def Line*
*But - DEN Rush Off 17th vs NE Rush Def 11th. (Wash) 
Advantage / Disadvantage

DEN #1 Pass Off vs NE 12th Pass Def
NE 7th Pass Off vs DEN 17th Pass Def
Advantage / Disadvantage

Pass Defense: 
DEN had 0 Interceptions in their Last Game
NE had 4.  Dennard Had 2.

Advantage / Disadvantage

Manning Sacked 0 Times Last Game (Product of 4th Off Line.)
Denver Defense - 4 Sacks
Brady Sacked 2 Times Last Game
Patriot Defense 3 Sacks Last Game 
Advantage / Disadvantage

NE 5th Rush Off vs DEN 23rd Rush Def. Blount 166 yds, 4 TDs, Long 73
DEN 17th Rush Off vs NE 11th Rush Def. Moreno 82yds, 1 TD Long 14. 
Advantage / Disadvantage

T/O Ratio:
NE +10
DEN -1 
Advantage / Disadvantage

Projected Red Zone
NE 70%
DEN 45%
Advantage / Disadvantage

As you can see - the Only Major Advantages for Denver are Good Protection for Manning in Good Weather and a Strong Pass Rush. In my Opinion - that Pass Rush is the Key to Victory for the Broncos. Brady does not like Pressure.  However, Belichick will Minimize that strength by Focusing on the Run. Red Zone Stats can be Deceiving. Last week Denver's Red Zone % was 75%. But they choked inside the 30 -3 times - at Home!  Maybe if his Busines Partner - Papa John - treated his employes a little better - they might have better Karma. LOL

New England, on the Other hand, Has the Greatest Advantage. Running Blount down their Throats. This will Open up the Pass game for Brady (with or without Questionable WRs) and Keep Manning on the Bench.  Moreno Does not afford Manning that same Luxury.  If Thompkins and Dobsons are healthy - This will get lopsided in Favor of the Patriots. The System called NE +5. I took Patriots Moneyline.

Patriots by 7

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