State of The Rcok

State of The Rcok
NFL News and Commentary

Tuesday, February 6, 2018


When we think of gamblers, we often think of the movies. Guys running for their lives from bookies and loan sharks. They hit a win and instead of paying their dept, they gamble it all away chasing a bigger win. 

I wrote this article because I discovered a simple truth this week that can prevent tragic losses and help the recreational and professional handicapper succeed. BUDGETS MATTER!

I was reviewing our year betting the NFL (57% T3 in the World) and the first 11 weeks of our Online Golf Bank (7 Wins in 11 Weeks best in world) and discovered a common thread, a money management mistake that drained away 20% of our success from both Online Banks. OVERSPENDING!

Fewer Bets Early in the NFL Season
First the NFL. Most of my losses came in the first 5 weeks. A time when stats really don't matter yet and we are trying to separate pretenders from contenders. If I cut half those losses - I would have been around 70% - best int he world. I will apply that knowledge next season. 

Size Matters
Back to the budget. Looking over the balances for each week of the NFL online bank I noticed that the big losses came when I bet a larger amount on one game. It paid off a few times, but when it didn't, it hurt the bank big. The lesson here is base your unit bets on your budget and don't go over. Spread the risk among several bets and don't expose yourself with a large bet on one team. There is no such thing as a sure thing in the NFL.  

Parlays and Straight Bets
Our NFL Online Bank made money again this year for one reason. The biggest improvement we made this year was the implementation of Straight Bets Only - No Parlays. If you've followed me the last few years you know I love parlays and have hit some great ones. But, I'm here to tell you - they are a losing proposition long term. Lets say you bet 3 teams in a week at $100 Each. You win 2 out of 3. If those were in a parlay you lose $300. If not you made money and had a good week. Over the course of a season Parlays will kill you. You may hit a few, but every other week you are just paying to keep the lights on in Vegas. Going 1-3 once in a while wont kill you - if you get paid for the one win.

Golf Betting Budget
I wrote this article because I realized I had carried that same budget error into the Golf Bank. 7 wins in 11 week is stupid good, But, money management is key. The bank was up about 30% about 4 weeks ago. The budget was $50 per week per tour. That way, 1 win of  $300 every 5 weeks per tour makes you money. I went over budget betting $200 per week for 4 weeks and now the bank is down. YOU HAVE TO WIN BIG IF YOU BET BIG - SO DON'T!

Live and Learn and Make Money
Fortunately Golf has a very long season, about 50 weeks per tour. The PGA and Euro combine for about 100 tournaments. So as the Carpenters would say: "We've Only Just begun".

Favorites vs Field
Golf is a little different than the NFL in one way. If you stay within your budget, betting more on just a few solid favorites or trending players can pay off better than spreading your budget across a large field. That seems to be ore true for the PGA than the Euro where longshots winning is more common. 

The Moral of the Story
There are no sure things and when the game is over, you have rent or a mortgage to pay and people counting on you. So, NEVER BET WHAT YOU CANT AFFORD TO BURN.

If you bet once a year hit a parlay. If you bet once a week. remember, when it comes to gambling... "The Tortoise will always beat the Hair".