Where Do You Stand?

Ruining The Game?

It's 10 am Sunday morning week 1. I have the 8 game NFL Sunday Ticket mosaic on my TV. My eyes are fixed on the frame with my favorite team. The anthem is playing, half the team has taken a knee. 3 minutes later the game starts, I’m cheering and enjoying the NFL.

Yeah, I’ve just been reminded that things are not perfect in our country, in fact, people are dying. Blacks are systematically being brutalized and killed by police. Not to mention immigrants and other innocent people.  

OK thanks! I don’t mind being reminded that my actions and my voice count. Perhaps that message will effect what I do and say with family, friends, at work, on social media, and at the ballot box. It may even change, or save a life. If a couple minutes of social awareness ruins the game for you, you have a pretty low tolerance for it. 

BTW, I think most cops are good, brave, decent people. However, that doesn't mean we should ignore injustice or brutality by even a few. Calling out a bad cop does not indict the good cops. People are individuals. We cant lump them into groups. All cops aren't this, all blacks or whites aren't that. When you stereotype, you will always be at least half wrong. 


[ As player protests gained momentum last year – the NFL stopped broadcasting our National Anthem ]

Do You Like Being Censored?

You are.  Did you notice that as player protests gained momentum last year – the NFL stopped broadcasting our National Anthem? Think about it? They stopped airing The National Anthem! Isn’t censoring protests reserved for fascist regimes and 3^rd world dictatorships? Something no one is talking about, is that whether players Stand, Kneel or Stay in the locker room. You probably won’t be allowed to know.  What if Vietnam War protests were never broadcast? Where does this end? You OK with that?

That’s White of You

“I don’t care, I just wanna watch the game” I’ve heard that expressed by several friends when I bring up the new NFL rules regarding Anthem protests. The new rules require players to stand during the anthem, or stay in the locker room.

Really? That’s your response? You’ve just sided with and maybe even influenced the new rule Trump promoted and the NFL enacted. You may not realize it, but that makes you part of the problem. I know you’re good people man, but that’s like getting mad or denying it when someone tells you your fly’s open. This white knee jerk reaction of anger or denial, anytime someone points out injustice in America is tearing our country apart.

[ A white Green Beret, Nate Boyer, gave Kaepernick the idea to take a knee ]

Making America Great

Great nations only stay great by constantly identifying and addressing inadequacies and inequalities that affect the quality of life of its people.  Our founding fathers left England to escape religious and political tyranny. Soldiers have died to protect our freedom, our right to choose whether or not to salute the flag. A white Green Beret, Nate Boyer, gave Kaepernick the idea to take a knee.  Boyer recently commented that they actually died for “The man on their left and right, and if we don’t live for the man on our left and right here at home - what did they die for?

 The Golden Rule

What if you had been harassed by black cops, and several of your white friends were shot by black cops in the last few years? Some white athletes were using one of the few national network platforms they had at their disposal, to mount a silent peaceful protest. The response from your black friends was “I don’t care, I just wanna watch the game”.

Is that really who you are? I don’t think so, you’re better than that.

-Rick Jansen

GAMBLING - THE TOROISE AND THE HAIR

When we think of gamblers, we often think of the movies. Guys running for their lives from bookies and loan sharks. They hit a win and instead of paying their dept, they gamble it all away chasing a bigger win. 

I wrote this article because I discovered a simple truth this week that can prevent tragic losses and help the recreational and professional handicapper succeed. BUDGETS MATTER!

I was reviewing our year betting the NFL (57% T3 in the World) and the first 11 weeks of our Online Golf Bank (7 Wins in 11 Weeks best in world) and discovered a common thread, a money management mistake that drained away 20% of our success from both Online Banks. OVERSPENDING!

Fewer Bets Early in the NFL Season
First the NFL. Most of my losses came in the first 5 weeks. A time when stats really don't matter yet and we are trying to separate pretenders from contenders. If I cut half those losses - I would have been around 70% - best int he world. I will apply that knowledge next season. 

Size Matters
Back to the budget. Looking over the balances for each week of the NFL online bank I noticed that the big losses came when I bet a larger amount on one game. It paid off a few times, but when it didn't, it hurt the bank big. The lesson here is base your unit bets on your budget and don't go over. Spread the risk among several bets and don't expose yourself with a large bet on one team. There is no such thing as a sure thing in the NFL.  

Parlays and Straight Bets
Our NFL Online Bank made money again this year for one reason. The biggest improvement we made this year was the implementation of Straight Bets Only - No Parlays. If you've followed me the last few years you know I love parlays and have hit some great ones. But, I'm here to tell you - they are a losing proposition long term. Lets say you bet 3 teams in a week at $100 Each. You win 2 out of 3. If those were in a parlay you lose $300. If not you made money and had a good week. Over the course of a season Parlays will kill you. You may hit a few, but every other week you are just paying to keep the lights on in Vegas. Going 1-3 once in a while wont kill you - if you get paid for the one win.

Golf Betting Budget
I wrote this article because I realized I had carried that same budget error into the Golf Bank. 7 wins in 11 week is stupid good, But, money management is key. The bank was up about 30% about 4 weeks ago. The budget was $50 per week per tour. That way, 1 win of  $300 every 5 weeks per tour makes you money. I went over budget betting $200 per week for 4 weeks and now the bank is down. YOU HAVE TO WIN BIG IF YOU BET BIG - SO DON'T!

Live and Learn and Make Money
Fortunately Golf has a very long season, about 50 weeks per tour. The PGA and Euro combine for about 100 tournaments. So as the Carpenters would say: "We've Only Just begun".

Favorites vs Field
Golf is a little different than the NFL in one way. If you stay within your budget, betting more on just a few solid favorites or trending players can pay off better than spreading your budget across a large field. That seems to be ore true for the PGA than the Euro where longshots winning is more common. 

The Moral of the Story
There are no sure things and when the game is over, you have rent or a mortgage to pay and people counting on you. So, NEVER BET WHAT YOU CANT AFFORD TO BURN.

If you bet once a year hit a parlay. If you bet once a week. remember, when it comes to gambling... "The Tortoise will always beat the Hair".